Despite a historic supply disruption, oil prices remain below previous peaks. Temporary buffers like strategic reserves and the focus of financial algorithms on headlines are masking the true severity. This creates a dangerous disconnect between financial markets and the slow-to-recover physical reality of energy supply.
France's fragmented political center lacks a formal process to select a single candidate to oppose the populist right. As a result, public opinion polls are becoming the unofficial sorting mechanism. The candidate who consistently performs best in polls will likely emerge as the consensus choice, effectively making polling the primary system.
Analysts should be cautious about early French presidential polling. A review of the last six elections reveals that polls taken 12 months before the vote were wrong half the time, often failing to predict a candidate who would even make it to the final runoff. This historical unreliability suggests today's front-runners are far from guaranteed.
Financial markets react instantly to news that a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, but the physical supply chain is much slower. Restarting production takes weeks, rerouting global shipping fleets can take 90 days, and refining adds more time. This creates a three-to-four-month lag before supply truly stabilizes.