With federal AI legislation stalled, states like Illinois, California, and New York are passing their own AI safety laws. Leading AI labs are endorsing these bills, recognizing that this state-level patchwork is effectively becoming the national standard for AI governance in the U.S.

Despite the risk of a fragmented legal landscape, the slow pace of federal AI legislation makes state-level action essential. States are acting as "laboratories of democracy," pioneering regulatory approaches that can later inform a much-needed national framework.

By aligning its RAISE Act with California's SB 53, New York is helping create a powerful, bi-coastal regulatory consensus. This convergence counters the industry's argument against a "chaotic patchwork" of state laws and establishes a baseline for AI transparency that other states may adopt, effectively setting a national standard in the absence of federal action.

The US President's move to centralize AI regulation over individual states is likely a response to lobbying from major tech companies. They need a stable, nationwide framework to protect their massive capital expenditures on data centers. A patchwork of state laws creates uncertainty and the risk of being forced into costly relocations.

Contrary to their current stance, major AI labs will pivot to support national-level regulation. The motivation is strategic: a single, predictable federal framework is preferable to navigating an increasingly complex and contradictory patchwork of state-by-state AI laws, which stifles innovation and increases compliance costs.

OpenAI is shifting its policy strategy, now supporting state-level regulations like those in Illinois. This marks a move away from waiting for a comprehensive federal standard towards a more practical approach that acknowledges public sentiment and the need to build trust locally.

In the absence of federal leadership, Governor Newsom's administration has pushed through legislation to regulate large language and frontier AI models, focusing on transparency and safety. This positions California, home to the AI industry, as the primary rule-maker for a technology its own founders call potentially dangerous.

Contrary to fears of fragmented regulation, key states like California, New York, and Illinois are adopting remarkably similar language for frontier AI transparency bills, creating a de facto standard. The real "patchwork" issue lies in consumer protection and deepfake laws.

California's push for aggressive AI regulation is not primarily driven by voter demand. Instead, Sacramento lawmakers see themselves as a de facto national regulator, filling a perceived federal vacuum. They are actively coordinating with the European Union, aiming to set standards for the entire U.S. and control a nascent multi-trillion-dollar industry.