Drawing from Sun Tzu and Charlie Munger, the key to long-term investment success is not brilliance in stock picking, but systematically avoiding common causes of failure. By identifying and steering clear of ruinous risks like excessive debt, leverage, and options, an investor is already in a superior position.

The stock market is a 'hyperobject'—a phenomenon too vast and complex to be fully understood through data alone. Top investors navigate it by blending analysis with deep intuition, honed by recognizing patterns from countless low-fidelity signals, similar to ancient Polynesian navigators.

When a decision is truly aligned, external factors fall into place with ease. Constant struggle and forcing outcomes are signs you're operating from mental obsession or desire, not clear intuitive guidance. Effortless flow is the key indicator.

The most profitable periods for trend following occur when market trends extend far beyond what seems rational or fundamentally justified. The strategy is designed to stay disciplined as prices move to levels few can imagine, long after others have exited.

Bruce Lee’s philosophy to be “formless, shapeless, like water” is a powerful model for investors. It warns against rigid adherence to a single dogma, like old-school value investing, and instead encourages adapting one's strategy to fit the unique conditions of the current market environment.

The most effective investment strategy is to first identify a growing consumer category with strong tailwinds (e.g., Mediterranean food). Only then should you invest in or build the company with the potential to become the dominant player, capitalizing on the winner-take-all dynamics of the industry.

Absolute truths are rare in complex systems like markets. A more pragmatic approach is to find guiding principles—like "buy assets for less than they're worth"—that are generally effective over the long term, even if they underperform in specific periods. This framework balances conviction with flexibility.

Investors hesitant to buy assets like gold near all-time highs can use trend following for exposure. The strategy systematically enters prevailing trends and, crucially, provides a built-in, non-emotional exit signal when the trend reverses, mitigating timing risk.

The best investors, such as FPA's Steve Romick, avoid being dogmatic and are willing to evolve their strategies when presented with new evidence. Buffett's pivot into Apple, despite his historical aversion to tech, is a prime example of adapting one's framework to a changing world.