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The quality of a business doesn't guarantee a good investment return. Companies like Cisco and Microsoft performed well as businesses after the 1999 bubble, but their stocks went nowhere for years because their initial valuations were too high. Investors must distinguish between the business and the stock.
Cisco's stock took 25 years to reclaim its year-2000 peak, despite the underlying business growing significantly. This serves as a stark reminder that even a successful, growing company can deliver zero returns for decades if an investor buys in at an extremely high, bubble-era valuation.
At the seed stage, if you're right about a truly exceptional company, the entry valuation hardly matters. Gokul cites a 200x return on an expensive seed deal. However, by Series B, a high price can crush your multiple, even if the company continues to perform well.
A company can possess incredible, world-leading moats like SpaceX and still be a terrible investment due to an exorbitant valuation. The ability to simultaneously acknowledge a company's greatness and its stock's overvaluation is a critical discipline for avoiding hype-driven investment mistakes.
An investor passed on a fund that paid 30-40x revenue for startups, believing quality alone justifies price. Three years later, that fund and its predecessors are underwater. This illustrates that even for great companies, undisciplined entry valuations and the assumption of multiple expansion can lead to poor returns.
The "Nifty Fifty" stocks of the 1970s, including blue-chips like Disney and Coca-Cola, collapsed despite being great businesses. Their sky-high valuations offered no margin of safety, proving that quality alone cannot protect investors from paying bubble-like prices for future growth that may not materialize.
Wise went public at a peak euphoria valuation near 390x earnings. Despite fundamentals compounding rapidly, the stock has been flat as the valuation multiple compressed to a more sustainable level. This illustrates the risk of overpaying, even for a great business.
During the "Go-Go Years," even premier companies like Disney and McDonald's traded at over 70x earnings. While the businesses survived and thrived, investors who bought at these peaks faced years of poor returns, proving that a great company can be a terrible investment if the price is too high.
High-quality stocks are often expensive, meaning they trade at a high multiple of their earnings. In uncertain times, these multiples can shrink even if the company remains strong, leading to negative returns. Conversely, cheap, low-quality stocks have room for their multiples to expand, delivering positive returns.
The idea of an infinite holding period is a myth, even for great companies. After Buffett bought Coca-Cola, it eventually traded at 58x earnings in 1998. By not selling, Berkshire endured a meager 4.5% annual return for the next 27 years, proving that even great businesses become sells at exorbitant prices.
Zoom's stock has barely moved since its IPO, despite a 1700% increase in free cash flow. This serves as a stark reminder that even phenomenal business growth cannot generate investor returns if the initial purchase price was astronomically high. Valuation truly matters.