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To ensure winning investments materially impact the endowment, Baylor reverses the typical allocation logic. It decides on a target dollar amount per underlying company (e.g., $3 million) and sizes its fund commitment accordingly, based on the fund's expected number of investments.
For endowments, compounding capital is key. A lower multiple returned quickly allows for redeployment, potentially generating a higher total return over the long term than a high-multiple fund that holds assets for 15-18 years.
Privat Capital holds a concentrated portfolio of 16-17 stocks. This strategy forces deep conviction in each position and ensures that winners have a meaningful impact on fund performance. Over-diversification can dilute both research focus and the potential returns from a fund's best ideas.
For a seed fund, the initial check is less critical than subsequent follow-on decisions. Driving top-tier returns requires a reserve-heavy model to pile capital into the 5-10% of portfolio companies that demonstrate breakout potential, as these few winners will generate the lion's share of returns.
Even with big wins, a venture portfolio can fail if not constructed properly. The relative size of your investments is often more critical than picking individual winners, as correctly sized successful investments must be large enough to overcome the inevitable losers in the portfolio.
To manage risk, GQG determines maximum position size by thinking like a credit analyst. A company with diversified business lines like Exxon can get a "AAA rating" and be a large holding. A more narrowly focused business, despite being attractive, gets a lower rating and a smaller size, preventing concentrated blow-ups.
Allocate more capital to businesses with a highly predictable future (a narrow "cone of uncertainty"), like Costco. Less predictable, high-upside bets should be smaller positions, as their future has a wider range of possible outcomes. Conviction and certainty should drive allocation size.
To remove emotion from investing in volatile markets, Baylor employs a mechanical strategy. They allocate capital in fixed increments as the market drops by certain percentage points, ensuring they never go "all in" at a single price point.
Merely getting 'logo' access to a top company is no longer sufficient for late-stage funds. To generate fund-returning multiples from multi-billion dollar outcomes, firms must have the conviction and ability to concentrate 5-10%+ of their fund into a single winner, a new dynamic in growth investing.
Baylor's largest private allocation is in growth equity. The strategy's key appeal is mathematical: with fewer companies going to zero, the fund's overall returns aren't dragged down by total losses. This creates a more reliable path to high returns compared to the hit-driven nature of early-stage venture.
Solo GP Zal Bilimoria intentionally keeps his fund size small and consistent at $50 million. This disciplined strategy is designed so that achieving a 5% stake in a billion-dollar company at exit would generate a $50 million return, covering the entire fund and ensuring strong performance from a single breakout investment.