Markets underestimate how lower rates and tighter credit spreads create a self-reinforcing "flywheel." This cycle of cheaper borrowing boosts asset values, which in turn enables even better refinancing terms, rapidly recovering and creating value in ways not yet priced in.

Unlike prior tech revolutions funded mainly by equity, the AI infrastructure build-out is increasingly reliant on debt. This blurs the line between speculative growth capital (equity) and financing for predictable cash flows (debt), magnifying potential losses and increasing systemic failure risk if the AI boom falters.

Conventional definitions of risk, like volatility, are flawed. True risk is an event you did not anticipate that forces you to abandon your strategy at a bad time. Foreseeable events, like a 50% market crash, are not risks but rather expected parts of the market cycle that a robust strategy should be built to withstand.

Unlike private equity (terminal value) or syndicated loans (interest-only), asset-based finance (ABF) provides front-loaded cash flows of both principal and interest. This structure inherently de-risks the investment over time, often returning significant capital before a potential default occurs.

Thinking about leverage as simply "on" or "off" is limiting. A more advanced approach views any asset with a lower expected return as a potential liability. One can effectively "borrow" it (i.e., short it) to finance the purchase of an asset with a higher expected return, aiming to capture the spread.

Modern finance is a refinancing mechanism. Debt needs liquidity to be rolled over, but liquidity creation itself requires high-quality debt as collateral (77% of global lending is collateral-based). This creates a fragile, self-referential system where a breakdown in either side can trigger a crisis.

Unlike manufacturing (limited by production lines) or services (limited by time), the business of money scales with almost no friction. Writing an $8 million mortgage takes the same effort as an $800,000 one, providing asymmetric upside.

A mortgage is a revolutionary abstract concept. It allows you to create a narrative about your financial viability thirty years into the future and, based on that story, borrow from that imagined future to acquire a real asset in the present. It turns time into a tradable commodity.

Citing a lesson from former Goldman Sachs CFO David Viniar, Alan Waxman argues the root cause of financial crises isn't bad credit, but liquidity crunches from mismatched assets and liabilities (e.g., funding long-term assets with short-term debt). This pattern repeats as investors collectively forget the lesson over time.