Contrary to seeking fully de-risked assets, pharmaceutical companies often prefer acquiring companies with some remaining clinical risk. This strategy allows them to leverage unique insights on early data to acquire assets at a better valuation, creating an opportunity for outsized returns before the value is obvious to others.

After years of focusing on de-risked late-stage products, the M&A market is showing a renewed appetite for risk. Recent large deals for early-stage and platform companies signal a return to an era where buyers gamble on foundational science.

Recent biotech deals are setting new valuation records for companies at specific early stages: preclinical (AbbVie/Capstan, ~$2B), Phase 1 (J&J/Halda, $3B), and pre-Phase 3 (Novartis/Abitivi, $12B). This signals intense demand for de-risked innovation well before late-stage data is available.

UCB's acquisition of Candid (BCMA, CD20) following a licensing deal for a CD19 engager reveals a larger pharma trend. Companies are building pipelines covering the main B-cell targets to hedge their bets before a single target proves dominant for specific autoimmune diseases.

The old assumption that small biotechs struggle with commercialization ("short the launch") is fading. Acquirers now target companies like Verona and Intracellular that have already built successful sales operations. This de-risks the acquisition by proving the drug's market viability before the deal, signaling a maturation of the biotech sector.

By first targeting T-cell lymphoma, Corvus gathers crucial safety and biologic effect data in humans. This knowledge about the drug's impact on T-cells directly informs and de-risks subsequent trials in autoimmune diseases like atopic dermatitis, creating a capital-efficient development path.

Merck cited Cedara's extensive, pre-Phase 3 research on pricing and cost-effectiveness as a key factor in its $10B acquisition. This demonstrates that early-stage biotechs can significantly increase their M&A value by proactively building a robust commercial case alongside their clinical development.

Despite a pivotal data readout pending, an acquisition of Abivax could happen beforehand. Historical deals like Merck's acquisition of Prometheus and Pfizer's of Arena show that large pharma companies are willing to 'roll the dice' and pay a premium for pre-data assets when their conviction in the science is high.

With patent cliffs looming and mature assets acquired, large pharmaceutical companies are increasingly paying billion-dollar prices for early-stage and even preclinical companies. This marks a significant strategic shift in M&A towards accepting higher risk for earlier innovation.