Since the 1930s, innovators have tried to apply factory methods to housing, believing it will slash costs. They consistently fail to achieve the promised savings due to fundamental constraints like site-specific requirements and difficulties achieving economies of scale. Katerra was simply the latest in a long line of examples.

The promise of factory efficiency in prefab housing is often erased by new costs. Modules must be over-engineered to survive road transport—a primary design constraint—and then require complex, costly on-site work to connect, negating initial savings.

The collapse of Katerra, which burned through $2-3 billion in VC funding, shows that simply applying factory models to construction is not enough. The startup's failure highlights that deep, systemic issues like logistics, regulation, and on-site complexity cannot be solved by capital alone.

The core bottleneck in construction isn't design intelligence but the high cost and stagnant productivity of manual labor. The most promising application of AI is not designing more clever prefabricated buildings, but powering robots to automate physical tasks, finally addressing the industry's decades-long productivity problem.

Unlike lightweight goods, heavy housing modules are uneconomical to ship more than a day's drive. This physical constraint prevents the creation of massive, centralized factories, forcing a model of smaller, distributed plants that cannot achieve the same economies of scale.

Beyond zoning debates, the complexity and outdated requirements of building codes massively inflate construction costs. Drew Warshaw proposes a novel approach: auditing the building code itself to create a streamlined, model version that could strip 15% from project costs, making it a powerful tool for affordability.

The housing affordability crisis is primarily a supply issue, not a mortgage rate problem. Regulations, permits, and zoning delays significantly inflate construction costs and timelines, adding an average of $93,870 to the price of each new house.

Contrary to most industries that see technological gains, housing construction has become less efficient. This stagnation is a key, often overlooked driver of housing affordability issues, as the fundamental cost to build has not decreased with technology.

The American Housing Corporation uses a factory-based manufacturing process to create home panels that can be shipped and assembled anywhere. Co-founder Bobby Fijan explains this model allows them to offer a fixed price for the core structure, detaching the cost from wildly variable local construction labor markets in places like San Francisco or Houston.