As more of the public internet and code repositories are generated by LLMs, any new model trained on this public data is, in effect, being 'distilled' from other models. This complicates accusations of direct distillation and blurs the line for what constitutes original training data.

Large, centralized AI models are vulnerable to 'distillation attacks,' where a smaller model can be trained cheaply by querying the larger one. This technical reality, combined with the moral hypocrisy of creators restricting copying after scraping the internet, strongly suggests a future dominated by decentralized, open-source models.

As more of the internet and code repositories are generated by leading AI models, any new model trained on this public data inadvertently "distills" the knowledge and quirks of those proprietary systems. This blurs the line between original training and outright copying.

Despite impressive models from companies like DeepSeek, China's AI ecosystem is heavily reliant on "distilling"—essentially copying and refining—open-source models from the US. This dependency on an external innovation engine is a major weakness in their national strategy to achieve genuine AI leadership and self-sufficiency.

The public-facing models from major labs are likely efficient Mixture-of-Experts (MOE) versions distilled from much larger, private, and computationally expensive dense models. This means the model users interact with is a smaller, optimized copy, not the original frontier model.

A common misconception is that Chinese AI is fully open-source. The reality is they are often "open-weight," meaning training parameters (weights) are shared, but the underlying code and proprietary datasets are not. This provides a competitive advantage by enabling adoption while maintaining some control.

Leading Chinese AI models like Kimi appear to be primarily trained on the outputs of US models (a process called distillation) rather than being built from scratch. This suggests China's progress is constrained by its ability to scrape and fine-tune American APIs, indicating the U.S. still holds a significant architectural and innovation advantage in foundational AI.

Unable to build frontier models from scratch, some Chinese companies gain a competitive edge by using "scale distillation." This involves training smaller, open models on the outputs of larger, proprietary US models, effectively piggybacking on American R&D to create capable, low-cost alternatives.

While closed labs like OpenAI and Anthropic possess superior raw model capabilities, the open-source community is ahead in developing 'agent primitives'—the fundamental components like memory, orchestration, and evaluation. This creates a layered ecosystem where closed models may rely on open-source agent architectures.