Fiscal incentives and monetary policy, such as suppressing long-term rates, have made it cheaper for AI companies to fund massive build-outs. This government-enabled environment accelerates the AI arms race, potentially exacerbating job displacement faster than natural market forces would allow.

For over a decade, Fed forward guidance and QE have suppressed interest rate volatility. A shift away from this communication strategy would likely cause volatility to return to the more "normal," higher levels seen before the 2008 global financial crisis.

Unlike past bubbles driven purely by market mania, the current AI boom is sustained by supportive fiscal and monetary policy. This makes it more resilient and dependent on policy shifts, rather than just market sentiment, for a correction.

A condition called "fiscal dominance," where massive government debt exists, prevents the central bank from raising interest rates to cool speculation. This forces a flood of cheap money into the market, which seeks high returns in narrative-driven assets like AI because safer options can't keep pace with inflation.

The Bank of Japan's intervention was not just about the yen, but a strategic move to "punt for risk parity"—to reduce volatility and calm markets. By strengthening the yen, they stabilized US Treasury rates, which in turn supported equities, revealing a tug-of-war between central banks seeking stability and traders seeking volatility.

While investors often watch equity markets for signs of Fed intervention, rising bond volatility poses a more significant risk to financial conditions. This makes the Fed more sensitive to instability in the bond market, meaning a spike there could trigger a dovish policy shift sooner than a stock market downturn.

The Treasury isn't just managing debt; it's actively managing market stability. Data shows a direct correlation where a 10-point rise in the MOVE index (bond volatility) subsequently leads to a ~$28 billion increase in Treasury buybacks, suggesting a deliberate policy to keep volatility low.

In today's hyper-financialized economy, central banks no longer need to actually buy assets to stop a crisis. The mere announcement of their willingness to act, like the Fed's 2020 corporate bond facility, is enough to restore market confidence as traders front-run the intervention.

The US economy is now so dependent on the performance of a few AI-centric tech giants that their failure is not an option. When the AI bubble deflates, expect a government bailout, framed as a strategic investment like the CHIPS Act, to prop up the market and prevent a wider economic crisis.