Our current computation, based on Turing machines, is limited to "computable functions." However, mathematics shows this set is a smaller, countable infinity compared to the vast, larger infinity of non-computable functions. This implies our current simulations barely scratch the surface of what is mathematically possible.
Generative AI can produce the "miraculous" insights needed for formal proofs, like finding an inductive invariant, which traditionally required a PhD. It achieves this by training on vast libraries of existing mathematical proofs and generalizing their underlying patterns, effectively automating the creative leap needed for verification.
Elon Musk's take on the simulation hypothesis includes a 'Darwinian' twist. Just as humans discard boring simulations, any creators of our reality would do the same. Therefore, the simulations most likely to continue are the most interesting ones, making 'interesting' outcomes the most probable.
A "software-only singularity," where AI recursively improves itself, is unlikely. Progress is fundamentally tied to large-scale, costly physical experiments (i.e., compute). The massive spending on experimental compute over pure researcher salaries indicates that physical experimentation, not just algorithms, remains the primary driver of breakthroughs.
Current AI can learn to predict complex patterns, like planetary orbits, from data. However, it struggles to abstract the underlying causal laws, such as Newtonian physics (F=MA). This leap to a higher level of abstraction remains a fundamental challenge beyond simple pattern recognition.
The advancement of AI is not linear. While the industry anticipated a "year of agents" for practical assistance, the most significant recent progress has been in specialized, academic fields like competitive mathematics. This highlights the unpredictable nature of AI development.
With past shifts like the internet or mobile, we understood the physical constraints (e.g., modem speeds, battery life). With generative AI, we lack a theoretical understanding of its scaling potential, making it impossible to forecast its ultimate capabilities beyond "vibes-based" guesses from experts.
The reason consciousness ceaselessly explores possibilities may be rooted in mathematics. A system cannot fully model itself, creating an infinite loop of self-discovery. Furthermore, Cantor's discovery of an infinite hierarchy of ever-larger infinities means the potential space for exploration is fundamentally unending.
If any civilization can create a convincing simulation, and those simulations can create their own simulations, the number of simulated realities would vastly outnumber the single "base reality." This makes it statistically probable that we are living inside one of the countless nested simulations rather than the original one.
Since math describes the structure of consciousness, and Gödel's theorem proves math is infinitely explorable, consciousness itself must be engaged in a never-ending exploration of its own possibilities. This provides a fundamental "why" for existence, replacing biological drives that only exist within our perceptual "headset."
We perceive complex math as a pinnacle of intelligence, but for AI, it may be an easier problem than tasks we find trivial. Like chess, which computers mastered decades ago, solving major math problems might not signify human-level reasoning but rather that the domain is surprisingly susceptible to computational approaches.