Instead of engaging in a costly activist battle himself, Buffett practiced Sun Tzu's principle of 'winning without conflict'. He waited until activists like Icahn and Einhorn had pressured Apple's management to implement a shareholder-friendly buyback policy. Once the opportunity was 'perfected' by others, he deployed capital peacefully and massively.
Buffett capitalized on a 30% stock drop in United Healthcare following the CEO's tragic death and regulatory issues. He looked past the short-term crisis to the company's long-term fundamentals, demonstrating his principle of investing in strong companies when market sentiment is at its most fearful.
Activists can be effective even in companies with dual-class shares or founder control. The mechanism for influence is not the threat of a proxy fight but the power of good ideas and relationships to achieve strategic alignment with the controlling party.
Don't chase every deal. Like a spearfisherman, anchor in a strategic area and wait patiently for the 'big fish'—a once-in-a-decade opportunity—then act decisively. This requires years of preparation and the discipline to let smaller opportunities pass by, focusing only on transformative deals.
Buffett’s legendary Apple investment came only after activists like Carl Icahn had already pressured the company into large-scale buybacks. He patiently waited for others to fix the company’s capital allocation flaws, entering the investment only after it was "perfected." This strategy allowed him to win without engaging in the initial conflict.
A common activist trap is 'ambulance chasing'—looking for problems to fix. ValueAct argues the correct sequence is to first identify a great company with a differentiated investment thesis. The need for influence is secondary, preventing adverse selection.
Buffett's strategy is to generate annual returns for shareholders. His moves, like holding cash, reflect his expert assessment of short-term market opportunities. Average investors with multi-decade horizons should not mimic him but rather see it as a data point for near-term volatility.
Buffett strategically used Berkshire's and Coca-Cola's inflated stock prices as currency to acquire Gen Re. This swapped his overvalued equity risk for Gen Re's stable bond portfolio, which acted as a ballast and protected Berkshire during the subsequent market crash. He allowed the deal to be publicly perceived as a mistake, masking its strategic genius.
Profitable, self-funded public companies that consistently use surplus cash for share repurchases are effectively executing a slow-motion management buyout. This process systematically increases the ownership percentage for the remaining long-term shareholders who, alongside management, will eventually "own the whole company."
Historically tech-averse investor Warren Buffett has made a rare, large bet on a tech company other than Apple. Berkshire Hathaway's $4.3 billion investment in Alphabet (Google) indicates a strategic evolution for the firm and a powerful endorsement of Google's durable market position.
In a market dominated by short-term traders and passive indexers, companies crave long-duration shareholders. Firms that hold positions for 5-10 years and focus on long-term strategy gain a competitive edge through better access to management, as companies are incentivized to engage with stable partners over transient capital.