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The US biotech industry is divided on collaborating with Chinese firms. A significant group feels trapped in a prisoner's dilemma: they would prefer if everyone stopped working with Chinese companies, but feel forced to engage because if their competitors do, they'll be at a significant disadvantage by opting out.

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Large multinational pharma companies publicly express concern about the threat from China's biopharma sector. Simultaneously, these same companies are investing billions, actively integrating China into the global ecosystem and contradicting their own zero-sum game narrative.

A disconnect exists between the public rhetoric of U.S. pharma leaders, who frame China's growing biotech sector as a threat, and their corporate actions. These same companies are investing heavily in Chinese R&D and manufacturing, revealing a dual strategy of public caution and private commitment to integrating China into the global biopharma ecosystem.

The US biotech industry's fixation on the "China threat" is largely a reaction to losing its undisputed global leadership position. Having never faced such potent competition, the industry is unsettled. The fact that the competitor is China, a geopolitical rival, amplifies this underlying anxiety about being dethroned.

To compete with China's rapid 'me-better' development, U.S. innovators should proactively partner with Chinese firms to create improved versions of their own drugs. This self-cannibalization strategy is necessary to stay ahead before competitors do it for them.

Driven by significant government investment, China is rapidly becoming a leader in biotech R&D, licensing, and outsourcing. This shift is a top-of-mind concern for US biotech and pharma executives, with China now involved in a majority of top R&D licensing deals.

As it becomes easier and more efficient to run clinical trials in China, U.S. companies are increasingly outsourcing them. This creates a dependency where China could cut off access to trials or withhold critical new drugs, ceding the entire innovation edge.

John Crowley, CEO of Bio, argues the best strategy for US biotech dominance is not protectionism. Instead, the focus should be on improving the US's own competitive advantages, like streamlining regulations and lowering innovation costs, to maintain its lead rather than trying to stifle Chinese research.

The narrative of China as an innovation 'threat' in biopharma may be a deliberate strategy to spur action in the U.S. By creating a sense of urgency and competition, reminiscent of the U.S.-Soviet superpower struggle, the industry may be attempting to mobilize investment and political will, even if the framing is seen as unfortunate.

The increasing innovation and speed from China puts pressure on the U.S. biotech ecosystem. To remain competitive, the U.S. must focus on collaboration and address its own systemic issues, such as slow trial execution and the high cost of getting a drug to the IND stage.

Despite US-China tensions threatening innovation, the likely outcome is 'coopetition'—a blend of competition and collaboration—as global pharmaceutical firms navigate the dual imperatives of advancing innovation and ensuring supply chain resilience.

US Biotech's China Strategy is a Prisoner's Dilemma of Reluctant Engagement | RiffOn