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Technological innovation should naturally make goods and services cheaper every year. When prices rise instead, it's a sign that central banks are 'stealing' that progress through inflation to fund government spending. Crisis-led deflation is bad; innovation-led deflation is beneficial.
When inflation outpaces interest rates, it's not a market accident but a calculated government policy. This gap functions as an invisible tax that steals purchasing power from anyone holding cash. This wealth transfer from the populace to the government occurs without legislation, tax forms, or public consent.
Technological innovation should naturally cause deflation (falling prices). The Fed's 2% inflation target requires printing enough money to first counteract all technological deflation and then add 2% on top, making the true inflationary effect much larger than officially stated.
True inflation is the reported rate plus the natural price decline from innovation that citizens never see. Governments print money to consume this productivity gain, creating a hidden tax that is far higher than official figures suggest, as all goods should naturally get cheaper over time.
It's misleading to cite a single inflation number. There's massive deflation in globally competitive sectors like electronics (touched by China and the internet). Simultaneously, hyperinflation exists in state-regulated, protected domestic sectors like US education, healthcare, and housing.
Technology (driven by Moore's Law) makes things cheaper (deflation). To support a debt-based system, central banks must print money (inflation), creating an unsustainable cycle where every $1 of GDP growth requires $4 of new debt. This is a fundamental, structural flaw.
While innovations like AI are disinflationary in a vacuum, history shows this effect is consistently overwhelmed by expansionary monetary policy. For over 200 years, central banks have created 'man-made' inflation, meaning investors shouldn't count on technology alone to keep prices stable.
While technology creates efficiencies and drives down the cost of specific goods, it cannot overcome persistent money creation by central banks. Since abandoning the gold standard, overall price levels have consistently risen despite massive technological leaps. AI will likely follow this pattern.
The word "inflation" is a deliberately implanted euphemism that makes monetary debasement sound like positive growth. The reality is that money is depreciating and its purchasing power is being stolen. Reframing it as "monetary depreciation" reveals the true, negative nature of the process and shifts public perception from a necessary evil to outright theft.
As AI gets exponentially smarter, it will solve major problems in power, chip efficiency, and labor, driving down costs across the economy. This extreme efficiency creates a powerful deflationary force, which is a greater long-term macroeconomic risk than the current AI investment bubble popping.
Our economy has fractured into two. One part, driven by technology (electronics, media), is hyper-deflationary. The other, dominated by regulation that constrains supply (housing, education, healthcare), is hyper-inflationary. This explains why 'fun' gets cheaper but life's necessities become unaffordable.