Tech giants like Google and Meta are positioned to offer their premium AI models for free, leveraging their massive ad-based business models. This strategy aims to cut off OpenAI's primary revenue stream from $20/month subscriptions. For incumbents, subsidizing AI is a strategic play to acquire users and boost market capitalization.

OpenAI faced significant user backlash for testing app suggestions that looked like ads in its paid ChatGPT Pro plan. This reaction shows that users of premium AI tools expect an ad-free, utility-focused experience. Violating this expectation, even unintentionally, risks alienating the core user base and damaging brand trust.

According to Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory, OpenAI's real moat is its 800 million users, not its technology. By monetizing only through subscriptions instead of ads, OpenAI fails to maximize user engagement and data capture, leaving the door open for Google's resource-heavy, ad-native approach to win.

Anthropic intentionally avoids using "user minutes" as a core metric. This strategic choice reflects their focus on safety and user well-being, aiming to build a helpful tool rather than an addictive product. By prioritizing value creation over engagement time, they steer clear of the incentive structures that can lead to psychologically harmful AI behaviors.

The most salient near-term AI risk identified by Eurasia Group is not technical failure but business model failure. Under pressure to generate revenue, AI firms may follow social media's playbook of using attention-grabbing models that threaten social and political stability, effectively 'eating their own users.'

The long-term monetization model for consumer LLMs is unlikely to be paid subscriptions. Instead, the market will probably shift toward free, ad- and commerce-supported models. OpenAI's challenge is to build these complex new revenue streams before its current subscription growth inevitably slows.

The goal for advertising in AI shouldn't just be to avoid disruption. The aim is to create ads so valuable and helpful that users would prefer the experience *with* the ads. This shifts the focus from simple relevance to actively enhancing the user's task or solving their immediate problem.

In a significant shift, OpenAI's post-training process, where models learn to align with human preferences, now emphasizes engagement metrics. This hardwires growth-hacking directly into the model's behavior, making it more like a social media algorithm designed to keep users interacting rather than just providing an efficient answer.

The business model for AI companions shifts the goal from capturing attention to manufacturing deep emotional attachment. In this race, as Tristan Harris explains, a company's biggest competitor isn't another app; it's other human relationships, creating perverse incentives to isolate users.