The proposed Dutch law exempts small startups but triggers a massive tax liability once they cross a threshold (e.g., €30M revenue). This creates a "tax cliff" where investors suddenly owe 36% on years of accumulated paper gains in a single hit, forcing a potential fire sale or crippling debt.
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The proposed California "entrepreneur's tax" is not a one-time levy on billionaires. It's viewed as the first step toward an annual tax on paper wealth, with thresholds planned to drop to $25M. This would impact founders with illiquid equity post-Series B, forcing a mass exodus before an IPO.
After an initial four-year tax holiday, New Zealand's Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) regime taxes foreign stock investments based on 5% of the portfolio's opening value, not actual gains. This means any returns exceeding 5% in a given year are effectively tax-free, a significant advantage for successful global investors.
Congressman Ro Khanna proposes a tax on the total net worth of individuals with over $100 million. Unlike an income or capital gains tax, this targets unrealized wealth, forcing the liquidation of assets like stocks to generate the cash needed to pay the tax.
Ben Horowitz warns against wealth taxes on unrealized gains by citing Norway's experience. The policy required founders to pay taxes on their private company's rising valuation with illiquid stock, leading to an exodus of entrepreneurs and effectively dismantling the local tech ecosystem.
The proposed wealth tax applies to illiquid assets. A founder of a highly-valued private AI startup could be deemed a 'billionaire' and face a massive tax bill on paper wealth, even if their company never exits or ultimately sells for a much lower price, creating a huge financial risk.
Instead of taxing unrealized gains, which forces asset sales and creates economic distortions, a more sensible approach is to tax the cash that wealthy individuals borrow against their assets. This targets actual liquidity and avoids punishing the long-term investment that builds the economy.
The Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) tax, which taxes 5% of a foreign stock portfolio's value, is a "paper tax" due regardless of actual performance. In years where investments lose value, investors must still pay tax on the presumed 5% gain, creating a liability even when facing real capital losses.
Billionaire wealth taxes are easily dodged by relocating. A more robust policy would tax capital gains based on the jurisdiction where the value was created, preventing billionaires from moving to a zero-tax state just before selling stock to avoid taxes.
A major flaw in the unrealized gains tax is that it punishes all investors for the actions of a few. A more targeted and less destructive approach would be to tax the loans that wealthy individuals take out against their stock portfolios, targeting the actual cash they use without harming the underlying assets.
A tax on unrealized gains is fundamentally flawed because it requires payment on potential, not actual, money. To pay the tax, investors must liquidate parts of their holdings, like company shares, which can destroy the asset's long-term value and disincentivize investment and company growth.