Investor sentiment has fundamentally changed. During the COVID era, investors funded good ideas. Now, they want to de-risk their investments as much as possible, often requiring solid Phase 1 and even compelling Phase 2 data before committing significant capital.

During market downturns, biotech companies lose the ability to raise capital simply when it's convenient. Financing becomes tied to specific events. The key is timing a fundraise immediately before or after the release of significant clinical data that de-risks the company and attracts new investors.

After years of focusing on de-risked late-stage products, the M&A market is showing a renewed appetite for risk. Recent large deals for early-stage and platform companies signal a return to an era where buyers gamble on foundational science.

Recent biotech deals are setting new valuation records for companies at specific early stages: preclinical (AbbVie/Capstan, ~$2B), Phase 1 (J&J/Halda, $3B), and pre-Phase 3 (Novartis/Abitivi, $12B). This signals intense demand for de-risked innovation well before late-stage data is available.

The old assumption that small biotechs struggle with commercialization ("short the launch") is fading. Acquirers now target companies like Verona and Intracellular that have already built successful sales operations. This de-risks the acquisition by proving the drug's market viability before the deal, signaling a maturation of the biotech sector.

For years, Actuate's CEO has shared progress with large pharma companies, not just for early deal-making, but to get critical feedback on their development plan. This helps them understand what data potential acquirers need to see to make a compelling offer later.

The CEO highlights Merck's acquisition of Verona Pharma and a GSK licensing deal—both for nebulized COPD therapies—as key market signals. These large transactions validated big pharma's interest in the niche, creating momentum and investor confidence that directly benefited AeroRx's own successful Series A fundraising efforts, de-risking their investment thesis for new backers.

Astute biotech leaders leverage the tension between public financing and strategic pharma partnerships. When public markets are down, pursue pharma deals as a better source of capital. Conversely, use the threat of a public offering to negotiate more favorable terms in pharma deals, treating them as interchangeable capital sources.

Winning a 'Golden Ticket' from a major pharma company like Servier provides more than just lab space. It acts as a powerful external validation of the science, which in turn helps the startup gain credibility to win additional awards and attract investment from other major players like Eli Lilly and Ono Pharma.