Investors bet against new drug launches because the shift from a research-focused culture to a commercial one is seen as an 'unnatural transition.' Companies are graded harshly on early results, creating a predictable valuation dip that hedge funds exploit, as seen with Portola Pharmaceuticals.

Companies run numerous disconnected AI pilots in R&D, commercial, and other silos, each with its own metrics. This fragmented approach prevents enterprise-wide impact and disconnects AI investment from C-suite goals like share price or revenue growth. The core problem is strategic, not technical.

The commercial success curve of a new drug is locked in within the first six to nine months post-launch. After this point, market perceptions are set, and additional investment yields diminishing returns. A rapid, real-time feedback loop is crucial for course-correction *during* this make-or-break period.

The pharmaceutical industry is often misunderstood because it communicates through faceless corporate entities. It could learn from tech's "go direct" strategy, where leaders tell compelling stories. Highlighting the scientists and patient journeys behind breakthroughs could dramatically improve public perception and appreciation.

The life sciences investor base is highly technical, demanding concrete data and a clear path to profitability. This rigor acts as a natural barrier to the kind of narrative-driven, AI-fueled hype seen in other sectors, delaying froth until fundamental catalysts are proven.

Beyond massive upfront investment and high failure rates, the most uncontrollable risk in a blockbuster strategy is timing, or luck. A revolutionary product launched before the market is ready for it is functionally a failure, regardless of its quality or innovation.

Developing an antibiotic is costly, but its use is short-term and new drugs are held in reserve, making them unprofitable. This market failure, not a lack of scientific capability, has caused pharmaceutical companies to exit the space, creating a worsening global health crisis.

A massive disconnect exists where scientific breakthroughs are accelerating, yet the biotech market is in a downturn, with many companies trading below cash. This paradox highlights structural and economic failures within the industry, rather than a lack of scientific progress. The core question is why the business is collapsing while the technology is exploding.

Even with strong initial sales, Soleno's stock was punished due to a growing investor fear of the 'launch plateau.' Citing examples like Skyclaris, the market is now skeptical that a few good quarters can be sustained, discounting strong early performance and demanding proof of long-term growth trajectory before rewarding a stock.